Demand improvement is expected to strengthen, steel prices are expected to continue strong adjustment weekend
Factors affecting steel price:
1, this Friday large varieties of steel production increased week on week
Friday’s large variety of steel production of 9,062,700 tons, an increase of 91,400 tons week on week. Among them, the total output of rebar steel and wire rod was 3,811,500 tons, an increase of 92,100 tons week on week. The output of hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil and medium and thick plate totaled 5.2512 million tons, down 0.07 million tons week on week. The total steel inventory this week was 17,023,500 tons, down 466,800 tons week on week. Among them, the steel mill inventory 4.7451 million tons, week on week reduction of 12,500 tons; The stock of steel was 12.2784 million tons, a decrease of 454,300 tons week on week.
Analysts view: large steel production on Friday week month-on-month increases, but the increment is lesser, as parts of steel mills continue to push forward their production, supply side loose co., LTD., at the same time from the point of inventory data, the current market confidence is gradually repair, improved demand expected to gradually strengthen, long-term perspective, the supply and demand is expected to gradually improve, good steel price.
2. Transportation continues to pick up
The newly released China Transport Production Index (CTSI) shows that transport production in July showed a continuous recovery to a good situation. Among them, the CTSI freight index registered positive growth for the first time since March. China’s Transport Production index (CTSI) fell 7.3 percent year-on-year to 158.2 points in July 2022, narrowing the decline by 3.9 percentage points from June. In terms of structure, CTSI freight index was 195.0 points, up 0.7% year on year; The CTSI passenger transport index was 87.8 points, down 31.3 percent year on year.
Analyst’s view: The sustained recovery of transportation has fully reflected the sound recovery of the domestic economy after the normalization of epidemic prevention and control. The freight transport index recorded positive growth for the first time since March this year, indicating that freight transport has broken out of the economic haze in the first and second quarters. With the gradual implementation of policies and measures to stabilize economic growth, the growth rate of aftermarket freight is expected to accelerate, adding “full horsepower” for the accelerated economic development, and good for the development of steel city in the medium and long term.
Today’s steel price is stable in strong
Among the 24 markets of rebar steel, 14 rose 10-20, 1 fell 10, 20mmHRB400E average price of 4240 yuan/ton, 9 yuan/ton higher than the last trading day;
The average price of 4.75 hot rolled coil is 4111 yuan/ton, 28 yuan/ton higher than the last trading day;
Among the 23 markets of medium and thick board, 11 rose 10-50 without falling, and the average price of 14-20mm Pu medium board was 4325 yuan/ton, which was increased by 9 yuan/ton compared with the last trading day.
A total of 25 steel mills adjusted prices today, among which:
17 up, accounting for 68%, the price range of 10-40 yuan/ton, the highest increase for Jiangsu Hongtai rebar;
Stable 8, accounting for 32%.
Steel futures rose today
Thread main futures rose 70 to 4149 today, or 1.72%; Hot volume main up 48, closed at 4087, or 1.19%; Coke main up 76.5, closed at 2982.0, up 2.63%; The main coking coal rose 58, closed at 2189.5, up 2.72%; Iron ore fell 0.54 percent, or 4 percent, to 730.5.
Latest price of scrap steel (Yuan/ton)
Adjustment price: Tangshan Yangang electric furnace charge up 100, before tax
Price adjustment: Cang Steel Group waste reduction of 20, before tax
Adjustment price: Guangxi Guixin scrap up 50, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
Price adjustment: Rongxing Special steel scrap up 30-50, excluding tax.
Steel price forecasting
In the half of August, measures to stabilize economic growth have been gradually implemented, and demand is expected to improve. However, the release of terminal demand is still insufficient, the market is cautious in taking goods, and the transaction is not significantly excessive. At the same time, electric furnaces and blast furnaces are gradually resuming production, but due to the tight power supply and demand, the capacity utilization rate of short process is not high, and blast furnaces are more subject to policy pressure. On the whole, the increase of supply side is limited, which is positive to the steel price. It is expected that the steel price will continue to be stable and moderately strong adjustment over the weekend.
Post time: Aug-13-2022