seamless steel pipe prices are still shaking, limited space
The supply side
This week, the output of rebar seamless steel pipe was 2,528,800 tons, with a monthly increase of 72,900 tons. The total inventory of rebar seamless steel pipe was 7,827,400 tons, with a monthly decrease of 366,100 tons. The inventory has been declining for 8 consecutive weeks, the inventory pressure has been relieved, and some seamless steel pipe mills have been out of stock. seamless steel pipe mills may slow to resume production.
The apparent demand for rebar seamless steel pipe this week was 2,894,900 tons, down 22.55 tons from the previous month; This week, due to the frequent disturbance of the epidemic and high temperature in the whole country, the operation rate of downstream construction sites is low, and the demand is lower than expected. In the traditional off-season, the enthusiasm of traders to take goods is also decreased, and the overall market transaction is still tepid, and the destocking speed is slowed down.
[billet] Today, the total inventory of seamless steel pipe billet in Tangshan is 838,400 tons, which is 22,400 tons less than that of yesterday. Among them, Haiyi Hongrun received 0.59 yesterday and discharged 1.78, and the current inventory is 369,400 tons; Xiangyu Zhengfeng yesterday received 0.11 out of 0.83, the current inventory of 341,000 tons; Product Zhenxiang yesterday warehousing 0.16 out of 49 million tons, the current inventory of 128,000 tons. Market, by the black period of snail high open high go boosted, the afternoon Qinhuangdao Lulong area Bai Gongpu billet price rose 50 yuan, the implementation of 3780 yuan tax, direct transaction has improved, individual traders sell tomorrow resources.
【 Coke 】 Coke spot temporarily stable operation, affected by the weak seamless steel pipe terminal demand, the port coke trading sentiment slightly cooled, Rizhao Zhuyi quoted 2580 yuan/ton (-20). The production of molten iron gradually picked up, the daily consumption of coke increased, seamless steel pipe mills purchased on demand, coke factory coke inventory to maintain low, coke first lift after the fluctuation, coke profit repair, driven by downstream demand, coke oven production accelerated, price support, due to weak demand, price space is limited.
[Iron ore] Iron ore market trading enthusiasm picked up yesterday, the port spot transaction increased, plate prices rebounded. The downstream end of the demand fell significantly, dewarehousing speed slowed down; This week, the average daily iron production increased by 40,000 tons month-on-month, the resumption of production slightly less than market expectations; The expected continuation of replenishment and production, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate this week, the port volume maintained. At the same time overseas inflation expectations turn weak, the market sentiment has picked up, short – term mining prices fell.
This week, the blast furnace profit fell to 100.83 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit was -54.1 yuan/ton. Rebar profit narrowed, but the profit level is gradually recovering, raw material prices are strong, the bottom of the finished material price has support, the resumption of seamless steel pipe production is expected to accelerate, but the short term demand for finished material is not good, raw materials and finished material continued to rise slightly weak, limited profit space.
The spot face
The building materials market as a whole rose slightly this week, most regions rose in 0-10. The apparent demand for the five major finished products in China is lackluster, and the inventory is accelerating. However, with the price of raw materials falling into stagflation, the resumption of seamless steel pipe mills has increased, and the output of threads has risen slightly, and the balance between supply and demand is still being repaired. Signs of a marginal improvement in fundamentals remain to be seen. Recommended price close to 4200-4250 line choose high throw, wait to fall back to the low again after low suction.
Yesterday’s black shock run, the market overall more cautious, for domestic demand improvement, expected relative differentiation, seamless steel pipe mill resumption, also suppress market sentiment. Black overfall rebound, temporary shock run.
Intra-day reduction back to 4100, not broken, and MA13 up to 4100 near the support price, once again added 50,000 hands, forming a high closing price, followed by high before the break, the impact of 0.764 volatility kinetic energy, during the period of attention to the oil disk in demand recrection volatility situation.
Hong kong-listed summary
At present, due to the disturbance of domestic high temperature weather and repeated epidemic, the construction of infrastructure projects is limited, and the volume of downstream demand is delayed. Infrastructure remains the main driver of economic growth and the backbone of seamless steel pipe demand. Afternoon as the weather turns cool, the off-season in the past, help infrastructure, ensure the delivery of buildings and other policies gradually landing, demand recovery is expected to be good. But in the short term, period snail high pressure, spot demand suppression, spot price dilemma, seamless steel pipe prices are still mainly concussion, fluctuation space is limited, there are still strong expectations in the medium and long term
Post time: Aug-13-2022