In April, rebar futures prices changed in mid-to-late March since the rise in volatility, to shock down. “51″ after the end of the holiday, rebar futures prices fell sharply again. After a week of consolidation in mid-May, rebar futures prices continued to fall and bottomed out on May 18, and rebounded after May 19…
Mid-may rebar futures price shock bottom
In early May, the first day of the market (May 5), rebar futures main contract (RB2210) closing price, the highest and lowest price were 4923 yuan/ton, 4953 yuan/ton and 4866 yuan/ton, mid-May later “bottom” when the corresponding price were 4532 yuan/ton, 4585 yuan/ton and 4461 yuan/ton, Decreased by 391 yuan/ton (down 7.94%), 368 yuan/ton (down 7.43%) and 405 yuan/ton (down 8.32%) respectively.
According to monitoring, May 20 (Friday) at the close, rebar futures main contract (RB2210) closing price, the highest and lowest prices are 4638 yuan/ton, 4650 yuan/ton and 4558 yuan/ton, showing rebar prices rebound after a small rebound. May 23 (Monday), rebar futures main contract (RB2210) prices began to decline slightly, its closing, high and low prices were 4604 yuan/ton, 4700 yuan/ton and 4567 yuan/ton respectively. Although May 23 rebar steel futures main contract closing price compared with the previous trading day settlement price down 7 yuan/ton, 0.15%, but its highest price than May 20 rebar steel futures main contract highest price 50 yuan/ton higher, up 1.08%; The lowest price was 9 yuan/ton higher, up 0.20%. The data also showed that, May 23, rebar futures main contract RB2211, RB2301, RB2209 and RB2212 of the latest prices were 4591 yuan/ton (down 0.07%), 4515 yuan/ton (down 0.22%), 4636 yuan/ton (up 0.13%) and 4588 yuan/ton (down 0.20%).
Thus, May 23 rebar futures prices have no obvious up and down trend, in the short term its price range may be more conservative.
Rebar spot price first suppression after Yang
In the spot market, the recent construction steel demand continues to be weak, rebar spot price was first suppressed and then Yang trend. Data show that in the first ten days of May 2022, the average price of rebar (φ16 mm ~φ25 mm, HRB400E) in the national market is 4944.7 yuan/ton, 28.2 yuan/ton lower than in late April, down 0.6 percentage points.
Recent rebar spot market trading atmosphere is better, easing pessimism, rebar overall price strong operation. Data show that as of May 20, the average price of φ25 mm ⅲ rebar in 10 major cities is 4801 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week on month (or 0.42%); The total inventory of domestic building materials decreased from the previous month, and the social inventory of construction steel in 29 key cities was 9.228,400 tons, a decrease of 215,400 tons (a decrease of 2.29%).
In terms of resource supply, rebar destocking speed slowed down, its output from increase to decrease, and the decline expanded. Data show that last week, more than 100 rebar production enterprises operating rate of 53.44%, a weekly decline of 1.31 percentage points; Its capacity utilization rate was 64.70%, down 3.29 percentage points week on week; The total stock of rebar decreased by 154,800 tons, among which the social stock decreased by 177,700 tons and the steel stock increased by 22,900 tons. China’s crude steel output fell 5.2 percent year-on-year in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. From January to April, China’s crude steel output fell by 10.3% year on year.
Rigid demand drops rebar price weakness is difficult to change
Nearly two months, rebar terminal demand is declining, the spot market is weak. According to the Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in April 2022, the national real estate development climate index (hereinafter referred to as the national housing climate index) further decreased to 95.89, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, down 0.77% from the previous month. From January to April, the growth rate of national real estate development investment further decreased to -2.7% year on year, 24.3% less than the same period last year (this has been more than one consecutive year of almost barrier-free linear decline). New housing construction area decreased 26.3% year on year; The area completed for housing decreased by 11.9% (including 16.0% for commercial business); Land purchase area decreased by 46.5% year on year; Commercial housing sales area fell 20.9% year on year; Funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased to 23.6% year on year (among which domestic loans decreased by 24.4%); Only commercial housing area increased by 8.4% and foreign investment increased 129.4%. At the same time, the average daily crude steel output in April reached 3.093 million tons, up 8.6%. This will increase the steel market supply pressure, making rebar spot prices up difficult.
Recently, there are more rain weather in the south, which affects the overall construction progress of the downstream. In addition, the downstream fund is relatively tight, and the project payment is not ideal. At the same time, recently published a series of data shows that the current domestic and foreign economic operation pressure, the rigid demand of rebar will be severely limited.
At present, the domestic COVID – 19 outbreak is gradually turn into normalized precise control, Shanghai, Beijing, tianjin and other major markets epidemic situation is still grim, most areas across the country have different degree by epidemic control of production and the effects of the economic life, lack of confidence in the market, trading is pale, rebar prices run hard to boost. Later, with the opening of transport channels in these areas and the gradual recovery of the logistics industry, rebar demand will slowly recover. Because of the strong willingness of steel manufacturers to spot price, rebar futures prices still have a small impact on the possibility. Therefore, THE author believes that the last few days of May, rebar futures market prices will be slightly better, to narrow shock adjustment to replace the turbulent ups and downs. With the gradual improvement of the market environment, rebar futures prices in early June may appear a certain range of recovery.
Post time: May-29-2022